Category Archives: Publications

English Translation: PNoy’s 2011 SONA

State of the Nation Address


His Excellency Benigno S. Aquino III

President of the Philippines

To the Congress of the Philippines

[English translation of the speech delivered at the Session Hall of the House of Representatives,

Batasan Pambansa Complex, Quezon City on July 25, 2011]

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile; Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr.; Vice President Jejomar Binay; former Presidents Fidel Valdez Ramos and Joseph Ejercito Estrada; Chief Justice Renato Corona and the honorable Justices of the Supreme Court; honorable members of the diplomatic corps; members of the House of Representatives and the Senate; Local Government Officials; members of our Cabinet; members of the Armed Forces and the Philippine National Police; to my fellow servants of the Filipino people;

And to my beloved countrymen, my Bosses:

I stood before you during my inauguration and promised: we would do away with the use of the wang-wang. This one gesture has become the symbol of change, not just in our streets, but even in our collective attitude. Read the rest of this entry


E-Book: Mindanao Report 2011 (SAIS – John Hopkins University)

School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

“Although the situation in Mindanao is sometimes compared to other recent secessionist conflicts in the world such as Kosovo’s struggle against Serbia and the secession of southern Sudan, there are some significant differences. At least since the overthrow of the Marcos dictatorship in 1986, the Philippines has been a largely democratic country, in marked contrast to Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbia or Omar Al-Bashir’s Sudan. Yet, as Kirk Donahoe points out, there remains a democratic deficit in the Philippines that serves as an obstacle to the establishment of lasting peace. Not unlike a lot of other democratic regimes, both new and old, the Philippines has alternated since 1986 between populist regimes and the domination of government affairs by a few prominent families who constitute an entrenched political elite, accompanied by a highly fragmented political party system.” –Excerpt from the Mindanao Report 2011 (downloadable e-book) Read the rest of this entry

Report on the Decade for a Culture of Peace: Final Civil Society Report for the UN Decade of Peace (2001-2010)

Click on the image to read/download the Decade Report

Generation Peace Youth Network (GenPeace) supported the publication of this Report. The crucial question being: What had the 2001-2010 UN-declared Decade (for a Culture of Peace and Non-violence for the Children of the World) accomplish for peace organizations around the world? What were the implications of the policy on peacebuilding initiatives worldwide? Read the rest of this entry

14 Key Features that Define a Successful Insurgency

by SEANGOURLEY on DECEMBER 21, 2009 (from

photo copyrighted to Gil Nartea/PHILANSA

Insurgencies are by their very nature difficult to understand. However each time an attack is launched and every time an IED explodes we start to know a little more about the structure of an insurgency. If we combine together enough of these attacks we start to build up a mosaic picture of the insurgency. Their actions can start to be defined mathematically and we can work backwards from these signatures to understand the fundamental forces that underlie the insurgency. This is exactly what we did in our latest research study “Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency“.

With these models we can for the first time quantitatively understand more about what makes an insurgency successful. From our analysis and modeling we find that there are 14 key characteristics that define a successful insurgent ecosystem; these are listed below with a short name to describe the feature.

Many body: There are many more autonomous insurgent groups operating within conflicts than we had previously thought. For example there are 100+ autonomous groups operating in Iraq (as of 2006).

Fluidity: The insurgents are loosely grouped together to form fluid networks with short half-lives. This is very different from the rigid hierarchical networks that have been proposed for insurgent groups.

Redundancy: If we remove the strongest group from the system another group will rise to replace the previous strongest group

Splinter: When a group is broken it does not generally split in half but instead shatters into multiple pieces

Redistribute: When a group is broken the components are redistributed amongst the other groups in the system. The redistribution is biased towards the most successful remaining groups.

Snowball: The strongest groups grow fastest

Tall poppy: The strongest groups are the predominant targets for opposition forces

Internal competition: There is direct competition amongst insurgent groups for both resources and media exposure. They are competing with each other in addition to fighting the stronger counterinsurgent forces.

Independent co-ordination: Autonomous groups act in a coordinated fashion as a result of the competition that exists between them.

Emergent structure: Attacks in both Iraq and Colombia become ‘less random’ and more coordinated over time

Evolution: The strategies employed by the groups evolve over time where successful groups/strategies survive and unsuccessful strategies/groups are replaced.

High dimensional: Connection occurs over high dimensions (i.e. Internet, cell phone etc) and is not dominated by geographic connections.

Non-linear: It is approximately 316* times harder to kill 100 people in an attack than it is to kill 10 people. (*Results for a conflict with alpha=2.5).

Independent clones: the fundamental structure and dynamics of insurgent groups is largely independent of religious, political, ideological or geographic differences.

What can we learn from insurgents? Should the US military adopt more of these principles? Can we apply these organizational characteristics to other problems? You can read more about the research over at the TED blog, including the in depth interview I did with them.

Editor’s Note: The Bangsamoro armed struggle, successful or not? Let’s discuss in the comments section. 

MILF Final Working Draft: Comprehensive Compact (Part 5)

If you want a soft copy of the document, download here. (Takes a loooooooong while)
Or simply view the file on here:

Peace Agreements and the Law of Peace

Professor Christine Bell is one of the leading scholar-practitioner in the fields of comparative peace agreements, human rights, transitional justice, constitutional amendments, public participation and women’s roles in peace processes.

“This consultative paper commissioned by International Alert and written by Prof.Christine Bell is the product of two perspectives which combine rigorous scholarlywork focused on legal academic research on peace agreements with reflective peacepractice over several decades.I briefly cited her landmark publication, ‘On the Law of Peace: Peace Agreementsand the Lex Pacificatoria’, discussing the evolving law of peace surrounding peaceprocesses at an address entitled, “Peacemaking Requires a Marathon Mentality:Reflective Peace Practice from a Filipino Perspective,” delivered before members ofthe judiciary and legal professionals at the Chief Justice lecture series during the2009 peace month.It was in the aftermath of this dialogue between peace advocates and legalpractitioners that the idea of an exchange of insights involving Prof. Christine Bellcame up, and so we discussed what possibilities there were for her to be involved inbringing to bear her considerable experience and research on the emerging lexpacificatoria and its relevance to peace processes in the Philippines.” –excerpt from Prefatory Note by Prof. Ed Garcia


Update Report on the GPH-CPP/NPA/NDF Peace Process

Alexander Padilla
GPH Panel Chair for the Talks with the CPP-NPA-NDF
Forum on Peace and Security
March 3, 2011

Download the file here.

National Perspective on Peace Process and National Security

Sec. Teresita Quintos-Deles
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process
Forum on Peace and Security
March 3, 2011

Download the presentation here.

Civil Society Initiatives on Engaging Peace Processes

Presented by Karen Tanada, GZO Peace Institute
Forum on Peace and Security
March 03, 2011

Download the presentation here.

The hidden crisis: Armed conflict and education (UNESCO 2011 Report)

Violent conflict is one of the greatest development challenges facing the international community. Beyond the immediate human suffering it causes, it is a source of poverty, inequality and economic stagnation. Children and education systems are often on the front line of violent conflict.

The 2011 Global Monitoring Report will examines the damaging consequences of conflict for the Education for All goals. It sets out an agenda for protecting the right to education during conflict, strengthening provision for children, youth and adults affected by conflict, and rebuilding education systems in countries emerging from conflict. The Report also explores the role of inappropriate education policies in creating conditions for violent conflict. Drawing on experience from a range of countries, it identifies problems and sets out solutions that can help make education a force for peace, social cohesion and human dignity.